Economist believes that Belarus is waiting for devaluation and default

The political situation in Belarus is naturally directly related to the value of its sovereign debts. Economists look at the situation rather darkly, believing that the country is likely to face devaluation and default, Alpari Alpari head Alexander Razuvaev told the news agency correspondent. The reason is simple, whoever ended up in power, Belarus is unlikely to be able to count on the previous financial support from the Russian Federation. As of April 1, 2020, Belarus had $39.5 billion in foreign debt, of which $16.7 billion was owed directly by the government, and $19.6 billion was owed by corporations and banks mainly state-owned. At the same time, the reserves of the Belarusian Central Bank amount to only $9 billion, of which only $4.2 billion is real foreign currency. Russia buys about 50% of Belarusian exports, provides billions in bilateral loans and provides significant subsidies at the expense of preferential oil prices. The Center for European Reforms estimated the amount of such subsidies between 2005 and 2015 at $100 billion. Belarus will face an external financing deficit of $2 3 billion, which makes it a priority to receive a deferred tranche of IMF credit or new loans from Russia. Ideally, Belarus needs a new president who will conduct privatization and market reforms in the interests of Russian capital. It was Russian oligarchs who frightened Belarusian state television for the past 25 years. It is possible to switch to the Russian ruble or supranational monetary unit. Neither Lukashenko nor Tikhanovskaya are suitable for this role. It is interesting how much Belarusian debts will be traded for when markets realize that there will be no more help from Moscow, the economist asks. According to the news agency, the opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who lost the presidential election in Belarus, announced her readiness to become a national leader. See also: Tikhanovskaya announced her readiness to become the national leader of Belarus